The recent collapse of the Portuguese government marks the third collapse in three years.
Like the others, this has left investors worried about Portugal’s Golden Visa Program.
Will it change? What does the future look like? Should I apply now? These are some of the very questions we see floating about.
And honestly, nobody knows. It depends on so many different factors. Therefore, we’ll look at all of them. But to begin with…
Why Did the Portuguese Government Collapse?
On March 11, 2025, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s accusations forced his party into a transitional phase following their parliamentary vote of no-confidence.
This came after the Prime Minister had requested parliamentary support through a confidence vote, trying to ‘dispel’ uncertainty after news allegations. However, opposition parties, including the Socialist Party, voted against this measure, causing the collapse.
The primary concern was a potential conflict of interest involving Montenegro’s consultancy firm, Spinumviva. The firm, which Luís passed on ownership to his wife and sons after becoming a party leader in 2022, had contracts with private entities dependent on government agreements.
This, as you can imagine, sparked concerns regarding Luís Montenegro’s integrity and transparency as a Prime Minster.
What Does this Mean for the Golden Visa Program?
Short-term
Between now (March) and July 2025, the government will go into a “caretaker” period. During this time, it’s very unlikely any major policy changes will occur to the Golden Visa Program.
Even so, historically, Portugal has maintained grandfather clauses well, for example, with NHR Status. Therefore, any individuals who apply for a Golden Visa Program under current regulations get to preserve their privileges despite future changes.
It’s important to note, however, that residency programs like the Golden Visa Program will be a big topic in up-and-coming political campaigns. Thus, changes in the long term may occur.
Long-term
What happens to the Golden Visa Program will depend on which party or coalition forms the government.
As it stands, it looks like the Democratic Alliance (AD) or the Socialist Party (PS) will win. A coalition can also happen, including several of the ‘smaller’ parties, but it’s unlikely.
Source: PolitPro
If the AD Forms Government
The Democratic Alliance, comprising the Social Democrats and two smaller centre-right parties, introduced the Golden Visa Program in 2012.
Generally, the AD favours policies that attract foreign direct investment. Therefore, if the AD forms a government, the outlook for this program will likely be positive.
With them elected, we may see the potential restoration of previously eliminated investment pathways, like real estate. We could also see a more simplified application process.
If the PS Returns to Power
Should the Socialist Party regain control, the Golden Visa Program could face additional restrictions or reforms.
During their previous nine years in power, the program came close to extinction. They were also the reason why the popular real estate investment option was removed from the program.
Under the Socialist leadership, changes to the program could include:
- Restrictions on qualifying investment categories.
- Higher investment threshold to limit accessibility.
- Additional requirements for applications.
- Possible gradual stoppage of the program altogether.
The Socialist Party may introduce some of these measures to make properties affordable for young Portuguese citizens. However, the effectiveness of this approach has been debated for a long time.
If a Coalition Including Smaller Parties Forms
A broader coalition could form if neither major party secures a clear majority. If this happens, the Golden Visa Program’s future depends on that coalition’s specific composition and policy priorities.
Smaller parties generally push for things such as social impact, job creation, etc., so we might see a few chances in the Golden Visa Program that help such factors. For example, instead of passive investments, a job creation-based investment or something similar.
Lessons from Previous Government Transitions and the GVP
In reality, nobody knows what will happen to the Golden Visa Program. It may or may not be impacted in the near future.
However, if we look at the previous government transitions, we can better understand what ‘might’ happen.
For example, the Non-Habitation (NHR) tax regime (another type of residency by investment) ended in January 2024. However, the conversation about the stoppage happened about a year before, in 2023.
This itself suggests that there shouldn’t be any immediate changes. However, it does suggest a change. The change to expect, however, is just something we’ll need to wait for.
How Should Potential Golden Visa Applicants Act Now?
Given the current political situation in Portugal, those interested in the Golden Visa Program should act now.
Portugal is known for grandfathering clauses. Therefore, you may not be affected even if policies or requirements change.
Plus, nobody knows what’s going to happen. It depends on who’s elected. By acting now, you position yourself in today’s requirements, not the unknown requirements that may occur in the future.
Conclusion
Without question, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the future of the Golden Visa Program.
History transition suggests there shouldn’t be any immediate changes. However, it may change in the long term. And how it changes depends on the party elected.
If you’re considering Portugal’s Golden Visa Program, you can signup for the upcoming live webinar with Jason Swan answering all your questions. Find out more here.
